Re: Verb tenses used with "I wouldn't be surprised"
This is a great question. It's not the time frame of fact that matters. It's the time frame of the truth.
Neil Armstrong landed on the moon in 1969. That is true not was true. In fact, it both is and was true. So, you can make a case for either depending on what you're trying to say.
'were' is a whole different ball game. That's the subjunctive mood.
There's also a report speech angle here.
He said he was gay. (He said "I am gay".)
And, that confuses it a little more.
I think you've stumbled on something our grammar can't handle cleanly. Happy to be corrected.